ANALYSIS: How many Express Entry ITAs can we expect to see in December?
Previous years of Express Entry draws can help us make reasonable estimates of how many Invitations to Apply (ITAs) we might expect to see issued for the remainder of 2024.
Should the number of ITAs issued in the remainder of 2024, relative to the landing target for 2025, be the same as it was on average for years 2021 to 2023, we might expect IRCC to issue about 3,522 ITAs through Express Entry in December.
That said, this number is only a reasonable estimate given the truth of the assumptions above—the actual number of ITAs issued in December may be significantly higher or lower than this estimate.
In the rest of this article, we’ll explain how we arrived at this estimate, and will also discuss some reasonable expectations of who may receive these invitations.
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How can we guess how many more ITAs IRCC will issue this year?
IRCC issues ITAs with the intention of meeting a specific target for landings—when a foreign national first arrives in Canada as a new permanent resident, or when a temporary resident already in Canada receives permanent residency.
There are two things to keep in mind here:
Not every ITA will result in a landing (some ITAs will be returned); and
Landings will lag ITAs significantly, on account of processing times.
IRCC’s landings target is set out in the annual Immigration Levels Plan.
The Immigration Plan details admissions, not ITAs. An admission, or landing, is defined as the final interview with an immigration officer, either at a port of entry or a local office in Canada, during which an applicant signs their confirmation of permanent residence (COPR) and becomes a permanent resident. This process can be done electronically as well but always involves the approved immigrant arriving in Canada to accept their PR status.
Although it might seem easy enough to simply compare annual immigration targets to ITAs issued in a year to deduce the number of remaining ITAs, doing so would not take into account the lag between ITAs and landings due to IRCC processing times, as well as the logistics of moving from one’s home country to Canada.
Per a newly released IRCC memorandum from July of 2024 to the Deputy and Associate Deputy Ministers of Immigration, due to the “lag between ITA (Invitation to Apply) and to admission(s) (between six to 16 months…), most ITAs issued between now [July 2024] and December (and up to the end of February 2025, for the most part) will count towards 2025 permanent residence targets.”
Therefore, a more robust method to derive the number of remaining ITAs in a given year may be to look at the number of ITAs delivered between July to December, relative to the following year’s Immigration Levels Plan target.
Assuming that IRCC will keep ITA issuances at consistent proportions to previous (non-COVID) years, the department issues a number of ITAs equal to between 43-46% of the following year’s landing target, between July 1 to December 31 of the current year. Outside of COVID years, this percentage has remained consistent:
YearITAs issued between July to December of the previous yearAnnual landing target through Federal High-Skilled pathwaysITAs issued as a percentage of the year’s landings target
201834,73874,90046.38%
201950,10081,40061.55%
202225,50955,90045.63%
202335,75082,80043.18%
202450,718110,77045.79%
After removing the proportion of ITAs relative to landings in 2019 as an outlier, we can average out the remaining proportions to build a general idea of how IRCC manages the issuances of ITAs. The average number of ITAs issued between July to December in a year, expressed as a proportion of next year’s landings target is 45.245%.
How many more ITAs could we see in December?
For 2025, IRCC has set an immigration target of 124,680 new newcomers through the Express Entry system. Between July to November of this year, the department issued 52,888 ITAs through the Express Entry system. This is equal to 42.42% of next year’s landings target.
If we assume that the proportion of ITAs issued this year relative to next year’s landings target will align with the average of the non-outlier previous five years, we might expect that IRCC will issue a number of ITAs equivalent to 2.825% of its admissions target for 2025, in December of this year. This equates to 3,522 more ITAs delivered to candidates in the Express Entry pool over the remainder of 2024.
This estimate is only a reasonable expectation should the above assumptions hold true. There is no certainty that what IRCC does this year will line up with what it has done in previous years. The department could issue far fewer or far more ITAs, as it sees fit.
The forecast also does not consider several factors that we do not have visibility into, but IRCC likely does (for example the average rate of ITA refusal, or variable processing times for PR applications).
Who is likely to get these ITAs?
IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan can also shed some light as to which kinds of candidates in the Express Entry pool are likely to receive these ITAs.
The 2025-2027 Level’s Plan split the Federal High-Skilled allocation (under which Express Entry falls) into two separate categories that will be handled through the federal system: “Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus”.
These two categories cumulatively make up the totality of landings/targets through the Express Entry system in 2025.
The “Federal Economic Priorities” category (allocated 41,700 admissions) will encompass category-based selections for candidates who have professional skills and experience in in-demand sectors of the Canadian economy—as well as those with strong French language proficiency.
In 2025 eligible categories will include:
Healthcare occupations;
Trade occupations; and
French-language proficiency.
Targets for Francophone immigrants outside Quebec are also set to increase, from 8.5% of all admissions in 2025 to 10% in 2027.
The “In-Canada Focus” category (allocated 82,980 admissions) will invite candidates who are already in Canada, in a bid to meet the targeted immigration levels, without further adding to the country’s population. Research also shows that these individuals tend to perform well in Canada’s labour market.
In 2025 this category will encompass:
Based on the government’s stated intention, we might reasonably expect that many of the remaining 3,522 ITAs may be issued to candidates in the CEC program, PNP programs, candidates who have strong French language proficiency, and/or who have professional experience in healthcare or trade occupations.
This trend is also reflected in Express Entry draws held in the previous months of 2024. For example, consider the last 20 Express Entry draws that IRCC has held (from August 2024 onwards):
Draw typeNumber of draws (August – December 2024)
Canadian Experience Class7
Provincial Nominee Program 7
French langauge proficiency4
Trade occupations 1
Healthcare occupations 1
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ANALYSIS: How many Express Entry ITAs can we expect to see in December?
Luis Diaz was fouled in Liverpool clash. (Photo by Eric Alonso/Getty Images)
Liverpool were 1-0 winners over Girona in the Champions League on Tuesday night and former Reds star Steve McManaman feels his old club got a little lucky. The Merseyside club arrived into the clash in Spain having won all five of their Champions League matches and Arne Slot’s men kept up their 100 per cent record with the victory.Girona caused Liverpool a lot of problems in the first half and the Reds boss can thank his goalkeeper Alisson Becker for keeping the home side out. The Merseyside outfit were much better in the second 45 minutes and it was during this half that the biggest talking point of the game emerged.Donny van de Beek would commit a clumsy challenge on Luis Diaz – who has recently been linked with a move away from Anfield – in the Girona box when the Dutch midfielder barely stepped on the winger’s heel.The referee viewed the coming together as a foul after being sent to the VAR monitor, resulting in Mohamed Salah converting the spot-kick.The incident sparked a lot of debate on social media and former Liverpool star Steve McManaman felt his old club were lucky to get the decision.
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Steve McManaman on the Liverpool penalty incident
Liverpool star Luis Diaz earned Liverpool a penalty. (Photo by Eric Alonso/Getty Images)Speaking after the match, McManaman stated that he thought the penalty was harsh and compared it to the unpunished fouls that often happen during corners and free-kicks.“You expect the midfielders to go to close down and if you stand on an inch of his heel, it is very unfortunate,” the pundit said on TNT Sports. “With all respect, it is a contact game. We see a lot more contact at corners and free-kicks that go unmentioned so I don’t think it was a penalty regardless of the result.”
“He’s given the referee an opportunity to make a decision or VAR to get involved” ?@rioferdy5 and Steve McManaman give their verdict on Liverpool’s penalty ?
? @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/wwH4emYXiI
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 10, 2024Liverpool will feel fortunate that they were awarded the penalty but Van de Beek gave the referee a decision to make after making the clumsy foul in their own box.Slot’s men were not at their best in Spain but as seen several times this season, the Reds found a way to come away from the match with all three points. https://www.caughtoffside.com/2024/12/10/liverpool-champions-league-tnt/
When it comes to home theater sound, one of the best brands to go with is Samsung. Over the last several years, Samsung surround sound systems and soundbars have done a phenomenal job at enhancing movie nights, which is why we’re always on the lookout for Samsung soundbar deals. As luck would have it, we came across a great one earlier today:
Right now, when you purchase the Samsung 3.1ch HW-Q6CC Soundbar, you’ll only pay $200. At full price, this model sells for $380.
Why you should buy the Samsung 3.1ch HW-Q6CC Soundbar
The HW-Q6CC is a Dolby Atmos soundbar, which means it can virtualize a full Atmos speaker configuration. Expect immersive audio, regardless of where you choose to sit or stand, plus a nice balance of highs, mids, and lows. And if you ever decide to relocate the soundbar to another room, Samsung’s Adaptive Sound Lite tech will automatically recalibrate the HW-Q6CC to the new space you place it in. Connectivity couldn’t be more effortless either: Thanks to HDMI eARC, you only have to worry about one wire going to your TV.
Far more than a home theater system, you’ll also be able to use the HW-Q6CC to stream music from a phone or tablet using Bluetooth. Pair two devices simultaneously and enjoy fast playback with Samsung’s Tap Sound feature, which lets you start playing a song from your phone through the Samsung soundbar just by tapping one device to the other.
While it’s hard to say how long this markdown is going to last, Samsung deals like this one have gone pretty quickly in the past. That being said, today might be the best day to save. Take $180 off the Samsung 3.1ch HW-Q6CC Soundbar when you purchase at Walmart, and be sure to check out our list of the best Walmart deals for even more holiday discounts!
https://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/samsung-hw-q6cc-soundbar-deal-walmart-december-2024/
The case in which two city lawyers are accused of forgery has taken a new twist after a prominent law firm has been implicated for alleged convenience in misleading court.
In the letter dated December 3, 2024 to the Inspector of Courts, pastor Daniel Walugembe has accused the lawyers, Robert Ssenfuka and Umar Nyanzi of SK and Partners Advocates of colluding with their colleagues at H&G Advocates to commit the alleged crimes.
Through his lawyers, Walugembe states that there is coordinated convenience between H&G Advocates and SK and Partners Advocates whose sole intention is to mislead and bias court against him which is very unfortunate and regrettable.
“Your worship, it is evident that in the letter written by H&G Advocates dated 23rd December 2021, requested for certified copies of proceedings, plaint, affidavit of service, and written statement of defense, consent judgment and decree in Civil Suit No. 699of 2017. Indeed in the letter dated 9th December 2022,” reads the petition adding that Natukunda Jeneva the Deputy Registrar certified the same documents.
According to the petition seeking for the intervention of the judiciary authorities into the matter, Walugembe insists that nowhere the registrar “gave any agreement to H&G advocates which they purportedly passed on to SK and Partners who are their conduits.”
Petition indicates that H&G Advocates is the law firm that represents Makerere University in the case litigated with Walugembe before the Land Division of the High Court; “But at no single point has H&G ever brought this purported sale agreement to disapprove or show inconsistent in his claim.”
The petition copied to the Chief Justice and other lawyers, the lawyers; Ssenfuka and Nyanzi are accused of concocting information and documents with a view of misleading court.
Through his lawyers of Alma Associated Advocates, Walugembe accused the lawyers of misleading court in the sworn statements to the principal judge that their client, Dr Ntwatwa Lule has never been party to earlier cases before the High Court.
“On that basis alone, it is our considered view that a person who can advise his client to lie on oath cannot be trusted at all. To demonstrate to you the perpetual lies of the accused persons in the affidavit they drafted for their client, drawn by SK and Partners Advocates, they advised their client to lie that he has never been party to application number 434 of 2019,” reads the complaint.
The petition copied to the chief justice, judicial authorities and lawyers was in response to complaints challenging the private prosecution of the lawyers Ssenfuka and Nyanzi.
Ssenfuka and Nyanzi both attached to SK & Partners Advocates are accused of fraud in regard to alleged forgery of agreements for Kibanja in Katanga near Wandegeya.
Last week, the Magistrates Court at Buganda Road, Jalia Basajjabalaba issued criminal summons against Ssenfuka and Nyanzi to answer accusations of forgery and uttering false
The duo is expected to appear in court on December 17, 2024 for plea taking and also for hearing formal application in which they are challenging the legality of the charges.
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It is alleged that the lawyers Ssenfuka and Nyanzi attached to SK & Partners Advocates while acting for and on behalf of their client, Dr Ntwatwa Lule committed criminal acts.
Court documents indicate that the accused lawyers are alleged to have committed forgery, uttering false documents and conspired to commit a felony when knowingly and unlawfully altered sales agreements dated February 9, 1996 and August 13, 1996 respectively.
H&G Advocates Accused of Forgery as Court Documents in Walugembe Case Face Scrutiny