PROMISE: Uganda to refine its own oil by 2020.
REALITY: Endless feasibility studies, workshops, inflated travels, ghost investors, and a gaping hole in public finances.
AMOUNT LOST: Over Shs 4 trillion.

In 2013, Ugandans were sold a dream—an audacious, transformative vision: that by the year 2020, the country would refine its own oil in a state-of-the-art refinery in Hoima. This dream, backed by top officials in government, was marketed as a national turning point that would catapult Uganda into the club of oil-rich nations finally extracting value from their natural resources.

Fast forward to 2025, and that dream is a mirage—a cruel illusion that cost taxpayers over Shs 4 trillion, with nothing but consultancy papers, unfinished roads, and investor flight paths to show for it.

The Grand Illusion: A Refinery for Ugandans

At the heart of Uganda’s petroleum development plan was the establishment of the Hoima Oil Refinery, projected to cost over $4 billion. The plan, announced with pomp by former Energy Minister Irene Muloni, promised to refine 60,000 barrels per day, create over 10,000 jobs, reduce dependency on fuel imports, and keep value-added wealth within Uganda.

Officials, including Ernest Rubondo, the Executive Director of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), fronted a convincing narrative. International feasibility studies were commissioned. Trips to oil-rich countries were made. Delegations flew to Russia, the US, China, and the UAE in search of “strategic partners.”

By 2020, Uganda was not only supposed to refine oil but also export petroleum products to Rwanda, Kenya, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Yet five years after the promised deadline, not a single drop of crude oil has been refined on Ugandan soil.

The Reality: Ghost Investors and Inflated Consultancies

Investigations reveal that between 2012 and 2023, over Shs 4 trillion was spent on consultancy fees, land compensation, workshops, benchmarking trips, and office setups—all with little tangible output.

Multiple investor consortia came and vanished like shadows at dusk. Among them were RT Global Resources (Russia), which pulled out in 2016, and SK Engineering & Construction (South Korea), whose involvement fizzled. Later, the Albertine Graben Refinery Consortium—comprising a little-known American firm, YAATRA Ventures, and Italian and Mauritian partners—was awarded the contract. But again, no refinery materialized.

“They’re stalling until the oil runs dry. Then they’ll say ‘Oops’ and retire rich,” said Ronald Kasirye, a Kampala-based investigative journalist who has closely followed Uganda’s oil developments.

A review of parliamentary reports shows that large sums were spent on public relations campaigns, travel allowances, and policy retreats. Workshops were conducted in five-star hotels, and officials amassed per diems while conducting “stakeholder engagement tours” across Europe and Asia.

The Implicated Faces of the Mirage

At the center of this failed promise are two key names: Irene Muloni, Uganda’s former Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, and Ernest Rubondo, head of the PAU.

Under Muloni’s leadership, the refinery project saw its most ambitious proclamations—and its most costly blunders. Despite repeated reassurances to Parliament and the public, she failed to deliver any infrastructure or viable investment partner before she was quietly dropped from Cabinet in 2019.

Ernest Rubondo, whose role includes oversight and implementation of petroleum sector projects, has also faced scrutiny. While maintaining a technically polished public persona, Rubondo has been accused of deliberate opacity, making critical decisions without public consultation and shielding corrupt dealings behind the veil of “confidentiality clauses.”

Whistleblowers within the Ministry allege that both Muloni and Rubondo signed off on multi-billion shilling consultancy contracts that were never audited, and that several feasibility studies were duplicated under new names to justify fresh funding.

Opportunity Cost: What Uganda Could Have Gained

With oil reserves estimated at 6.5 billion barrels, Uganda had the chance to be a continental game-changer. A functional refinery would have allowed the country to reduce fuel import bills (currently standing at over $1.2 billion per year), stabilize fuel prices, and reinvest profits into social services like healthcare and education.

Instead, the country continues to export crude oil plans and import refined petroleum, hemorrhaging resources while its population struggles under the weight of inflation and unemployment.

Moreover, the land acquired for the refinery in Hoima—over 29 square kilometers—remains largely idle, displacing over 7,000 families who were compensated with pennies or relocated without proper resettlement infrastructure.

The Silence of Accountability

Despite widespread public frustration, no official has been prosecuted over the refinery scandal. Parliament’s Committee on Commissions, Statutory Authorities and State Enterprises (COSASE) called for an audit in 2022, but the report has yet to be debated.

Civil society organizations such as Global Rights Alert and Transparency International Uganda have called the oil refinery debacle one of Uganda’s “most expensive lies.” They demand full accountability for every coin spent and criminal proceedings against those who misused their offices.

The Inspectorate of Government and the Auditor General’s Office have remained largely silent, with many alleging that the matter has been “politically managed” due to the high-level officials involved.

A People’s Verdict

For many Ugandans, the oil refinery has become a national metaphor for betrayal. A hope once kindled by promises of economic transformation now lies extinguished by greed and political expediency.

Uganda may yet extract and export its oil, thanks to international companies like TotalEnergies and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). But it will do so without internal capacity to refine or fully profit from it—a classic case of a nation rich in resources but robbed of destiny.

The refinery project, once a crown jewel in Uganda’s Vision 2040, is now an emblem of state-enabled deception. It is a haunting reminder that corruption doesn’t just steal money—it steals futures.

Editor’s Note: This is part of our “Projects that Vanished” series—an investigative exposé on public funds lost to white elephant projects and elite impunity.