Previous years of Express Entry draws can help us make reasonable estimates of how many Invitations to Apply (ITAs) we might expect to see issued for the remainder of 2024.

Should the number of ITAs issued in the remainder of 2024, relative to the landing target for 2025, be the same as it was on average for years 2021 to 2023, we might expect IRCC to issue about 3,522 ITAs through Express Entry in December.
That said, this number is only a reasonable estimate given the truth of the assumptions above—the actual number of ITAs issued in December may be significantly higher or lower than this estimate.
In the rest of this article, we’ll explain how we arrived at this estimate, and will also discuss some reasonable expectations of who may receive these invitations.
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How can we guess how many more ITAs IRCC will issue this year?
IRCC issues ITAs with the intention of meeting a specific target for landings—when a foreign national first arrives in Canada as a new permanent resident, or when a temporary resident already in Canada receives permanent residency.
There are two things to keep in mind here:

Not every ITA will result in a landing (some ITAs will be returned); and
Landings will lag ITAs significantly, on account of processing times.

IRCC’s landings target is set out in the annual Immigration Levels Plan.
The Immigration Plan details admissions, not ITAs. An admission, or landing, is defined as the final interview with an immigration officer, either at a port of entry or a local office in Canada, during which an applicant signs their confirmation of permanent residence (COPR) and becomes a permanent resident. This process can be done electronically as well but always involves the approved immigrant arriving in Canada to accept their PR status.
Although it might seem easy enough to simply compare annual immigration targets to ITAs issued in a year to deduce the number of remaining ITAs, doing so would not take into account the lag between ITAs and landings due to IRCC processing times, as well as the logistics of moving from one’s home country to Canada.
Per a newly released IRCC memorandum from July of 2024 to the Deputy and Associate Deputy Ministers of Immigration, due to the “lag between ITA (Invitation to Apply) and to admission(s) (between six to 16 months…), most ITAs issued between now [July 2024] and December (and up to the end of February 2025, for the most part) will count towards 2025 permanent residence targets.”
Therefore, a more robust method to derive the number of remaining ITAs in a given year may be to look at the number of ITAs delivered between July to December, relative to the following year’s Immigration Levels Plan target.
Assuming that IRCC will keep ITA issuances at consistent proportions to previous (non-COVID) years, the department issues a number of ITAs equal to between 43-46% of the following year’s landing target, between July 1 to December 31 of the current year. Outside of COVID years, this percentage has remained consistent:

YearITAs issued between July to December of the previous yearAnnual landing target through Federal High-Skilled pathwaysITAs issued as a percentage of the year’s landings target

201834,73874,90046.38%

201950,10081,40061.55%

202225,50955,90045.63%

202335,75082,80043.18%

202450,718110,77045.79%

After removing the proportion of ITAs relative to landings in 2019 as an outlier, we can average out the remaining proportions to build a general idea of how IRCC manages the issuances of ITAs. The average number of ITAs issued between July to December in a year, expressed as a proportion of next year’s landings target is 45.245%.
How many more ITAs could we see in December?
For 2025, IRCC has set an immigration target of 124,680 new newcomers through the Express Entry system. Between July to November of this year, the department issued 52,888 ITAs through the Express Entry system. This is equal to 42.42% of next year’s landings target.
If we assume that the proportion of ITAs issued this year relative to next year’s landings target will align with the average of the non-outlier previous five years, we might expect that IRCC will issue a number of ITAs equivalent to 2.825% of its admissions target for 2025, in December of this year. This equates to 3,522 more ITAs delivered to candidates in the Express Entry pool over the remainder of 2024.
This estimate is only a reasonable expectation should the above assumptions hold true. There is no certainty that what IRCC does this year will line up with what it has done in previous years. The department could issue far fewer or far more ITAs, as it sees fit.
The forecast also does not consider several factors that we do not have visibility into, but IRCC likely does (for example the average rate of ITA refusal, or variable processing times for PR applications).
Who is likely to get these ITAs?
IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan can also shed some light as to which kinds of candidates in the Express Entry pool are likely to receive these ITAs.
The 2025-2027 Level’s Plan split the Federal High-Skilled allocation (under which Express Entry falls) into two separate categories that will be handled through the federal system: “Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus”.
These two categories cumulatively make up the totality of landings/targets through the Express Entry system in 2025.
The “Federal Economic Priorities” category (allocated 41,700 admissions) will encompass category-based selections for candidates who have professional skills and experience in in-demand sectors of the Canadian economy—as well as those with strong French language proficiency.
In 2025 eligible categories will include:

Healthcare occupations;
Trade occupations; and
French-language proficiency.

Targets for Francophone immigrants outside Quebec are also set to increase, from 8.5% of all admissions in 2025 to 10% in 2027.
The “In-Canada Focus” category (allocated 82,980 admissions) will invite candidates who are already in Canada, in a bid to meet the targeted immigration levels, without further adding to the country’s population. Research also shows that these individuals tend to perform well in Canada’s labour market.
In 2025 this category will encompass:

Based on the government’s stated intention, we might reasonably expect that many of the remaining 3,522 ITAs may be issued to candidates in the CEC program, PNP programs, candidates who have strong French language proficiency, and/or who have professional experience in healthcare or trade occupations.
This trend is also reflected in Express Entry draws held in the previous months of 2024. For example, consider the last 20 Express Entry draws that IRCC has held (from August 2024 onwards):

Draw typeNumber of draws (August – December 2024)

Canadian Experience Class7

Provincial Nominee Program 7

French langauge proficiency4

Trade occupations 1

Healthcare occupations 1

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ANALYSIS: How many Express Entry ITAs can we expect to see in December?

Enzo Maresca of Chelsea, during the UEFA Conference League match against Heidenheim. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
Chelsea are seemingly always on the lookout for new talent, and Lecce’s Patrick Dorgu has become the latest object of Enzo Maresca’s desire.Although he’s only 20 years of age, the Blues – as well as a number of other clubs – have been impressed by the enormous potential of the young winger.Chelsea leading the charge for Patrick DorguCaughtOffside sources indicate that Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur, Napoli and Juventus have all asked to be kept informed of any transfer movement regarding Dorgu, who already has three goals in 12 appearances this season (transfermarkt).Chelsea have seemingly begun to look for younger talent rather than established stars of late.Dorgu would fit into that category, though his long-term contract with Lecce means that any transfer fee will come in at around the £50m mark.Patrick Dorgu of Lecce during the Serie A match against Empoli. (Photo by Maurizio Lagana/Getty Images)That’s unlikely to put off the Blues who are apparently interested in taking Alexander Isak from Newcastle for £80m.The issue for the player, should a move to Stamford Bridge present itself, is whether he trusts his own abilities in order to help him establish himself in what is already a bloated squad.Liverpool to join the race for 20-year-old on Tottenham radar – READ MORE!Maresca has also shown that his expectations must be met or else he has no problem whatsoever of letting players know exactly why they’re not playing.Clearly a hard task master, it’s arguable that his hard line is what’s behind the Blues recent upturn in fortunes.That may be of interest to Dorgu, though sources have also advanced to CaughtOffside that the player’s representatives would prefer him to stay in Serie A for the time being.

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Whether that means they’re happy for him to remain at Lecce or will attempt to engineer a move to either Napoli or Juve isn’t clear.One thing is almost certain, however, and that is Patrick Dorgu has a big future ahead of him. https://www.caughtoffside.com/2024/11/29/chelsea-patrick-dorgu-50m-ace-lecce/

Uganda Airlines has launched the flight path sustainability project, a waste management initiative designed to enhance aviation safety and support environmental sustainability around Entebbe International Airport.Bird strikes pose a significant challenge to global aviation, costing the industry an estimated $1.2 billion annually as they primarily during takeoff and landing, with up to 90% happening near airports.To this, Uganda Airlines which operates from Entebbe International Airport located near the bird-rich Mabamba Bay has by June this year recorded 21 bird strikes.However, in a bid to mitigate this state of affairs, the national carrier officials say it is high time they dealt with the root cause.“Bird strikes pose a serious challenge to aviation globally, and Entebbe International Airport is no exception. This project aims to reduce bird concentrations near our flight paths by 40%, ensuring safer skies for all,” Uganda Airlines CEO, Jenifer Bamuturaki said.“We are not just addressing safety; we are also taking a holistic approach to environmental conservation by protecting the Mabamba Bay ecosystem and promoting sustainable waste management practices.”She emphasized the need for collaboration between the airline and other stakeholders including local communities to create a safe environment but also  foster behavior change and support innovative recycling solutions such as repurposing fish scales as industrial raw materials.“By supporting women fish traders along Lake Victoria’s shores, we aim to uplift livelihoods and improve sanitation in Kigungu and the surrounding areas.”Entebbe Municipality mayor, Fabrice Rulinda said whereas Kigungu and other parts of the municipality have long faced waste management challenges, the project presents and opportunity to change this state of affairs.“The partnership between Uganda Airlines and our community will help reduce bird strikes, enhancing the safety of flights and protecting our local ecosystem in Mabamba Bay. Supporting women fish traders and improving hygiene practices will lead to significant improvements in the quality of life for residents in Kigungu and beyond,” Rulinda said.He urged local communities to embrace this project with open hearts and minds.Uganda Airlines head of PR and Communications, Shakila Rahim Lamar emphasized that the project is about tackling the root causes of bird strikes by addressing waste management challenges in communities near Entebbe Airport.“We recognize that Spur-winged geese and other birds are drawn to improperly disposed fish waste. Our solution is to minimize this attraction through sustainable waste practices. Public awareness is a key component of this project. We will engage the Kigungu community and the Municipality to inspire a culture of recycling, reusing, and reselling waste materials,” she said.About the projectAccording to Uganda Airlines officials, the project  is anchored on four key objectives including a 40% reduction in bird concentration around Entebbe International Airport by implementing strategic waste management solutions to minimize bird-attracting debris but also protecting Mabamba Bay, a vital habitat for various bird species, while maintaining the ecological balance of the area.The project will also promote sustainable waste management practices by creating cleaner and safer environment for both aviation operations and the local community.Special attention will be given to supporting women involved in fish trading along the shores of Lake Victoria, promoting better hygiene and waste management practices. https://www.ugbulletin.co.ug/uganda-airlines-moves-to-mitigate-bird-strikes-around-entebbe-airport/